TechLetters #167 Attacking satellites. Systems of weapons. Revolution in Military Affairs.
Security
Attacking satellite communication. As the war in Ukraine shows, large constellations of satellites in low orbit (LEO) are resistant to jamming. Several reasons. 1) Signal 10-100x stronger than GEO; so it is harder to jam 2) Lots of satellites in range of users; jamming everything is difficult. The attacker would have to target even 49 satellites, in multiple bands. This leaves options for attacks on protocols (LTE/5G), which may be possible.
Quantum computers in 15 years? Google considers that "the main risk for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer is within a ten to 15 year timeframe". Such “determinations” claimed as fixed are puzzling. It's not the current briad consensus as "likely". Nothing points to it. I would be cautious with starting tech write-ups with: "If we do not encrypt our data with a quantum-secure algorithm right now, an attacker who is able to store current communication will be able to decrypt it in as soon as a decade". In journalism, on the other hand, it could be fine.
Other
Revolution in Military Affairs. Future of warfare won’t be decided by weapons systems but by systems of weapons, those systems will cost less. Many of them already exist, like Shahed drones or the Switchblade drones destroying Russian tanks in the Donbas. This also means inevitable arrival of fully autonomous weapons systems. War of OODA loops, swarm versus swarm will transform warfare. Software-based war is imminent. Some policymakers or organizations (like ICRC) will not like that. AI dominance will become a tool of conquest?
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