TechLetters Insights. Trump's plans for the cyber domain.

While there are interesting rumours flowing here and there, I am limiting here to the quite sizeable coverage of the topic in the Project 2025 plan. Assuming that this may form the blueprint for the future administration, it positions cyber as an integral element of conducting conflict related activities.

By integrating cyber and electronic warfare (EW) into traditional combined-arms strategies, it aims to enhance defense capabilities across military domains.

Electronic Warfare (EW) involves utilizing the electromagnetic spectrum to intercept, disrupt, or control enemy communications and radar, enhancing situational awareness and defensive operations. The plan is to integrate EW with cyber. The integration of cyber operations with EW is justified by the unique ability of these domains to achieve targeted and rapid effects across both the cyber and physical battlespace.

A previous example of cyber methods used to disable critical systems is the alleged 2007 cyber attack by Israel on Syria’s radar systems during Operation Orchard. While there is no verifiable information regarding the actual execution of these cyber operations, it remains unclear whether the attack occurred or how it was conducted.

A key element of this approach is a whole-of-government strategy for irregular warfare. This form of conflict involves unconventional tactics and methods often employed by both state and non-state actors to achieve strategic objectives indirectly. The strategy encompasses the use of cyber, informational, and economic tools, alongside counterterrorism tactics, to address complex security threats. Essentially, these activities operate below the threshold of formal warfare and include actions such as sabotage and other tactics typically associated with 'hybrid operations.' It is important to note that referring to these activities as 'warfare' can be misleading, as they are not intended to escalate into open conflict. When such actions do cross that threshold, they transition into straightforward warfare, which renders 'hybrid' a somewhat vague and overused term.

The plan highlights that lessons learned from the war in Ukraine indicate that current cyber doctrines may need reassessment. This reassessment could inform more effective strategies in the evolving landscape of cyber and electronic warfare. In Ukraine, cyber capabilities were utilized before the armed conflict to shape the information space and create mild paralysis. During the conflict, they were employed to steal sensitive citizen data and to support ground operations, as well as serving as a tool for cyber-enabled propaganda and defensive measures.

Although these cyber actions did not result in large-scale events akin to a 'Cyber Pearl Harbor,' in my opinion cyber (and info) capabilities will continue to be utilized even after the war, particularly if a ceasefire or peace treaty is achieved. Such activities will not stop.